📈 Forecasting Currency in Circulation (CIC) Using Deposits and Withdrawals Dynamics

A web-based econometric system for analyzing and forecasting monetary indicators.

Upload your dataset and run analysis to obtain forecasting results.

⚙ Methodology:

• Transform data into logarithmic returns.
• Estimate the ARDL model and select the optimal lag structure using SBC (BIC)
• Perform residual diagnostics for the selected ARDL model
• Fit the GARCH(1,1) model to the ARDL residuals
• Apply the BIGRU neural network to model the nonlinear residual component
• Forecast the explanatory variables for three months ahead using the ARMA–GARCH model>
• Generate three out-of-sample forecasts using the ARDL–GARCH–BIGRU hybrid model

📋 Data Requirements:

• Excel file (.xlsx format)
• Must contain exactly one sheet
• Must contain four columns only
• The column names must be:
  • mo (Date / mm-yyyy)
  • cic (Currency in Circulation)
  • dep (Deposits)
  • withd (Withdrawals)